The map and the territory alan greenspan pdf
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- The Map and the Territory 2.0
- The map and the territory 2.0 : risk, human nature, and the future of forecasting
- 6 Things I Learned From "The Map and the Territory"
- The Map And The Territory 20 Risk Human Nature And The Future Of Forecasting
Look Inside. Oct 22, Minutes Buy. Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting.
The Map and the Territory 2.0
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No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us? To answer this question, Alan Gree Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better.
Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid. The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming.
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To ask other readers questions about The Map and the Territory , please sign up. Be the first to ask a question about The Map and the Territory. Lists with This Book. Community Reviews. Showing Average rating 3. Rating details. More filters. Sort order. Dec 17, Aaron Schlafly rated it did not like it. First, let me say that I greatly enjoyed "The Age of Turbulence. I gave it five stars, and consider it one of the best books I have read in the genre. Second, let me say that I am an actuary who is keen on books about finance, economics, etc.
I like regression analysis. However, I found this book very tough going. The topics seemed to be more of a grab-bag of topics, and it was not clear what the theme or thesis was, though one or two chapters were able to hit a stride and were good. This is in contrast to "Capital in the Twenty-First Century" by Thomas Piketty, which is more methodical, but brings each point clearly before proceeding to the next topic.
The arrangement of the book original edition, hardcover worked against the writing. I found myself frequently flipping back and forth, as most, but not all charts were in the back of the book. There are over endnotes for a book of only pages. These should have been triaged, with asides embedded into the text as parenthetical clauses, useless notes removed, and only the rest included as end-notes. I am no editor, and I am not usually picky.
However, the endnote mess including footnotes to endnotes, endnotes embedded in graphs at the back, etc. View 1 comment. Dec 10, Mohamed rated it liked it Shelves: reviewed-books , finance-economics.
Greenspan is a master number cruncher and his commentary on China's post-crisis investment-spending fuelled growth is a prime example of his skill. However, I take stock with his argument that economies benefit from lower taxes on high-income earners.
Greenspan argues that because of their low spending as a percentage of income, their savings are large enough to increase their risk appetite and induce them to finance high risk ventures such as backing startups and disruptive technologies, which a Greenspan is a master number cruncher and his commentary on China's post-crisis investment-spending fuelled growth is a prime example of his skill.
Greenspan argues that because of their low spending as a percentage of income, their savings are large enough to increase their risk appetite and induce them to finance high risk ventures such as backing startups and disruptive technologies, which are key to growth and economic advancement. While I agree to the merits of taking high risks by backing such investments, I see him focusing on the supply side and not considering the effects of fiscal policy on demand.
A If maintaining a balanced budget is key, then lowering the tax burden on the rich will place the burden on low income earners, who spend a higher percentage of their income; this leads to lower consumer demand for the economy's output. Additionally, smaller governments mean lower welfare transfers to the poor and low income earners, doubling the burden on this class and reducing consumer demand even further, this will lead to lower corporate investment, as weaker demand reduces the attractiveness of corporate investments and the returns that corporates expect to generate from such investments.
B In an era characterised by a saving glut, it might be preferable to impose higher income-taxes on the rich to reduce the stock of savings available to the economy, this will increase the expected return on these savings and produce more attractive risk premia on corporate investment, generating more flows to such investments. Jan 10, Uwe Hook rated it it was ok.
Unless you are a macroeconomist or monetary policymaker, save your money. Classic example of a very smart man with little common sense for how to communicate. Poor logical flow; poor metaphors the title is never clearly explained; couldn't he find a better description than "animal spirits"?
I majored in economics and spent 30 years in the business world at senior levels, yet many sentences were literally unintelligible.
W Unless you are a macroeconomist or monetary policymaker, save your money. Where was the editor? Why did the publisher let this out?
A soft apology for why the Fed missed the big housing bubble. It did not convince me. Yet Greenspan is right on target with many observations from banks needing more equity capital to the risks with counterparty assurances, the failure to correct "too big to fail," shadow unregulated banking, herd behavior, tail risk, GSE's and crony capitalism, and more.
He could have written so much more cogently on these important subjects, or had someone assist him with the manuscript. Smart man; bad book. Jul 29, Venky rated it liked it Shelves: economics.
As a globalized world found itself in a tailspin of malevolence following the unprecedented financial crisis of , economists found themselves being brutally panned for either their inability to predict such a catastrophe or for being the mavens of undying optimism. One such distinguished economist was Alan Greenspan.
Known as the Oracle for his economic wizardry the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve of The United States was caught right in the centre of the eye of the storm. Even the modern day Delphi miserably failed to envisage the cascading financial ruin that brought the global economy to the brink of disaster. In this candid work, Greenspan analyses the cause and consequences of one of the greatest recessions to have visited us.
He readily admits that the field of Economics having at its edifice macro and micro forecasting models totally fails to factor into its analysis the famous "animal spirits" of John Maynard Keynes. The animal spirits which inform the behaviour, both rational and irrational of the market participants plays a huge role in setting the directions of an economy.
Such a behaviour animates fear and euphoria, herd behaviour, time preference and accumulation of status goods elucidated in great detail by Thorstein Vebler in Even though most of the ailments as well as the prescriptions in this book are "America specific", Greenspan dwells upon the challenges posed by the integrated Euro markets and the contradicting behaviour of its various participants.
These entities with their inextricable link to the global markets and to similar cross border corporations trigger a calamitous collapse in the event of their going bankrupt. Hence the State steps in to do everything possible to prevent such a disastrous outcome. Greenspan argues that such state intervention would infuse an element of callousness and recklessness in the behaviour of these huge corporations. As an alternative he proposes measures such as an issuance of Contingent and Collateral Bonds CoCo which would ensure that upon a financial risk event being triggered, the debts represented by these bonds automatically get converted into equity.
He also envisages the preparation of "living wills" whereby an expeditious means of liquidation is already in place even when a TBTF institution is alive and functioning. He views with a measure of skepticism the provision in the Frank-Dodd legislation which identifies a whopping seventeen institutions as coming within the category of TBTF.
Greenspan also bemoans the burgeoning increase in social spending or benefits spending which has a material impact on the gross total savings of an economy. For the curious who harbour an inquisitiveness to understand the cause behind the near collapse of the Global economic and financial system between and , "The Map and The Territory" provides an invaluable lesson.
Nov 07, Nancy Mills rated it it was amazing. I enjoyed this one as much as The Age of Turbulence. While the subject matter is heavy, I find Greenspan's style pleasant and entertaining. This book is just packed with good stuff, and not a lot of filler fluff. I learned so much. All of our elected officials should be required to read this book, as it demonstrates clearly the long term effects of our economic and social policies. Of course we all know politicians are more interested in promoting policies that will make them popular in the shor I enjoyed this one as much as The Age of Turbulence.
Of course we all know politicians are more interested in promoting policies that will make them popular in the short run, but may cause disaster further down the line, Greenspan explains this in concrete terms.
Refreshingly, the author is nonpartisan. I finished this book convinced that Alan Greenspan is one of the great minds of our time.
The map and the territory 2.0 : risk, human nature, and the future of forecasting
Greenspan has written a very odd book, strangely silent about both his failures and successes as Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board. In my paper I will explore how these world- or city maps relate to the places and territories in which the avatar moves. So, misused formulae and equations which don't apply, aren't questionable? Nothing happened on this until January under his successor Ben Bernanke. But it went on for four more years. A map of a school district may list the U. The only way you get economic progress, real standards of living moving higher, is to have the savings of the society continuously invested in the cutting-edge technologies.
Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of to question some fundamental assumptions about risk.
6 Things I Learned From "The Map and the Territory"
He works as a private adviser and provides consulting for firms through his company, Greenspan Associates LLC. First appointed Federal Reserve chairman by President Ronald Reagan in August , he was reappointed at successive four-year intervals until retiring on January 31, , after the second-longest tenure in the position behind William McChesney Martin. Greenspan came to the Federal Reserve Board from a consulting career. Although he was subdued in his public appearances, favorable media coverage raised his profile to a point that several observers likened him to a "rock star".
The Map And The Territory 20 Risk Human Nature And The Future Of Forecasting
It's about the economy and the financial system after the financial crisis. The degree of certainty with which the so-called hard sciences are able to identify the metrics of the physical world appears to be out of the reach of the economic disciplines. But forecasting, irrespective of its failures, will never be abandoned. It is an inbred necessity of human nature. The more we can anticipate the course of events in the world in which we live, the better prepared we are to react to those events in a manner that can improve our lives.
By Alan Greenspan. The Penguin Press. A version of this article. The Map and the Territory 2. Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting.
PDF | Greenspan's book does not quite reach either, in trying to reach Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting by Alan Greenspan.
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Specifically, he has been trying to understand why he and so many other economic forecasters failed to see the housing bubble that caused the crisis. The mistake, he writes, is that forecasters treated humans as rational decision makers — a functional fiction that no longer seems functional. But Mr. Greenspan sees a way forward: Humans, he writes, are irrational in predictable ways. This is promising stuff. It might even make an interesting book.
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